Technical Analysis

USDCADs break above the 100 hour MA yesterday, fails today

Price trades above and below the 100 hour MA

The USDCAD broke above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) for the first time since October 6 in trading yesterday.  Buyers entered the market on the break, but still had the 200 hour moving average in its sites as a confirming technical clue. 

When the pair could not reach that target, and subsequently traded back below its 100 hour moving average at 1.23458 (currently), there was the natural disappointment.  The sellers wandered the price lower. The low price extended to 1.2320 today.

That low is still above the swing low from Tuesday and a swing low from Wednesday and Thursday near the 1.2309 level. Breaking below that swing level should have traders looking toward the lowest level since June 25 at 1.2287.

Conversely, it now would take a move back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line) and staying above, to give the buyers the confidence to take another shot at the 200 hour MA (green line).

Ultimately, however, if the price cannot get above the 100 hour moving average and then the confirming 200 hour moving average, the sellers still hold the strongest hand.  

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