FX

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD clings to gains near $1,765 area, lacks bullish conviction

  • Gold regains positive traction on Wednesday amid escalating US-China tensions over Taiwan.
  • The emergence of fresh USD selling turns out to be another factor lending support to the metal.
  • The overnight hawkish remarks by several Fed officials keep a lid on any meaningful upside.

Gold attracts some dip-buying near the $1,755 region on Wednesday and stalls the previous day’s sharp retracement slide from a four-week high. The XAU/USD maintains its bid tone through the first half of the European session and is currently trading around the $1,766 area, just below the daily high.

Heightened geopolitical tensions caused by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit turns out to be a key factor offering support to the safe-haven gold. China condemned the highest-level US trip to Taiwan in 25 years and responded with a flurry of military exercises, and announcing the suspension of several agricultural imports from Taiwan.

The intraday uptick is further supported by the emergence of some US dollar selling, which tends to benefit the dollar-denominated commodity. A mixed performance around the US Treasury bond yields fails to assist the USD to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a multi-week low, though bets for further Fed rate hikes help limit losses.

In fact, several Fed officials sounded hawkish on Tuesday and hinted that more interest rate hikes are coming in the near term. The markets were quick to react and assisted the US Treasury bond yields to recover swiftly from the lowest level since April. This is holding back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the non-yielding gold.

Furthermore, investors seem reluctant and prefer to wait for a fresh catalyst before positioning for the resumption of the recent recovery from the $1,680 area, or a 15-month low touched in July. Hence, the market focus would remain glued to the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs report – popularly known as NFP on Friday.

The data would play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for gold. In the meantime, traders on Wednesday might take cues from the release of the US ISM Services PMI. This, along with the US bond yields, could drive the USD demand and provide some impetus.

Technical levels to watch

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