A slower pace of Dollar decline seems likely – SocGen

The Dollar peaked in late September, shortly after long-term US real rates peaked. In the view of economists at Société Générale, the next leg of Dollar weakness might be slower and not in a straight line.

A pause, perhaps? But not the end of the Dollar bear market 

“The reluctance of the US market to price terminal fed funds above 5%, alongside the start of monetary policy tightening elsewhere, has shifted momentum away from the dollar. Meanwhile, upward revisions to global growth expectations have reduced fear of the dollar seeing safe-haven inflows.” 

“In the short run, we may see a hiatus as the markets digest the US slowdown, the shift in relative momentum between the Fed and other central banks, and the less-bad-than-feared global economic backdrop. That may mean the next leg of Dollar weakness is slower and isn’t in a straight line.” 

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